SOP 03: Priority Engine

Priority Formula

Use this formula:

priority = (impact * confidence) / effort

Round to one decimal if needed. For quick working use, integer values are fine.

Higher impact and confidence increase priority.

Higher effort reduces priority.

What Impact Means

Impact is the expected revenue effect if the hypothesis is correct.

It is not how exciting the idea sounds.

Impact should reflect:

• size of the affected funnel step
• proximity to purchase
• likely upside if the leak is reduced

What Confidence Means

Confidence is how strongly we believe the hypothesis is directionally right.

Confidence can come from:

• analytics evidence
• behavior evidence
• prior learning
• category pattern recognition
• experienced operator judgment

What Effort Means

Effort is the cost to design, build, QA, launch, and review the test.

It should include:

• implementation complexity
• design work
• stakeholder overhead
• technical risk

How Human Intuition Affects Confidence

Human intuition is allowed to raise confidence when it comes from real pattern recognition, category experience, or deep knowledge of the customer.

It should not inflate confidence without explanation.

If confidence is partly intuition-led, note it explicitly so the team knows why the node is ranked where it is.

Scoring Scale Guidance

Impact

• 1-3: low commercial relevance or narrow surface area
• 4-6: meaningful but limited upside
• 7-8: strong likely commercial effect on an important step
• 9-10: major leak close to revenue with high upside

Confidence

• 1-3: weak evidence or mostly speculation
• 4-6: mixed evidence, plausible but unproven
• 7-8: solid evidence or strong pattern support
• 9-10: repeated proof, strong evidence, or highly consistent past learning

Effort

• 1-3: fast and simple to execute
• 4-6: moderate build or coordination cost
• 7-8: heavy implementation or significant dependency load
• 9-10: expensive, slow, or risky to launch cleanly

Example of Ranking 3 Nodes

Node A: Product value clarity

• Impact: 9
• Confidence: 8
• Effort: 3
• Priority: 24

Node B: Shipping threshold messaging in cart

• Impact: 8
• Confidence: 7
• Effort: 2
• Priority: 28

Node C: Search zero-results fallback redesign

• Impact: 6
• Confidence: 5
• Effort: 6
• Priority: 5

Rank Order

1. Shipping threshold messaging in cart
2. Product value clarity
3. Search zero-results fallback redesign

The ranking is not about which idea is more interesting.

It is about which move should absorb scarce execution next.

Max Number of Active Priorities

Limit active work to 3-5 items.

That range is small on purpose.

If more than five items are active, the team usually loses clarity, execution speed, and verdict quality.

Rule

Maximum active priorities at one time: 3-5

Default target: 3

Only go above three when execution bandwidth and review discipline are clearly strong.